How to Make Money on Betfair – The Secret of Greening Up

The term ‘greening up’ on Betfair may be familiar to you. For some it’s the holy grail of trading on Betfair. But how is possible to green up on Betfair and will it really make you money consistently?

The difference between matched betting sites like Betfair and traditional bookmakers is that they allow us to lay events and outcomes as well as back them. For example we can bet that a horse will lose its race or that a football team will lose its match. Gambling and betting markets are just like financial markets – they ebb and flow and are driven by greed and fear! These movements and fluctuations create opportunties to green up and make money on Betfair.

Let’s look at an example in the horse laying system market. The horse Lucky Lad is well fancied by the experts and has won three of of it’s five recent races. The night before the race it’s a very firm favourite and is available to lay on Betfair at the short price of 2.0. Other experts, however, see that there are two very strong contendors in the race and that one is ridden by a jockey who hasn’t lost at the track in his last 4 races. The following day money starts to move to the other two horses as the market follows the view that they might win and this causes Lucky Lad’s price to drift out to 3.0 on Betfair. Can you see the opportunity here? If we made a lay bet on Lucky Lad for £100 at the price of 2.0 by the time he drifted out to 3.0 we could back him for £100 with a profit of £50 if he wins and no loss if he doesn’t!

To green up this bet we would split the stake over the horses and ensure that whichever wins we make a small profit. There are free Betfair calculators and bots which can make the calculations for you. Greening up on Betfair is of course much easier when there are fewer possible outcomes – for example a football or tennis match. Here as before we look for price changes in the market which mean we can both back and lay and lock in a profit.

Greening up bets takes practise and patience but can be hugely rewarding and is worth the time to explore.

The Secret Algorithm Used by Online Poker Sites

It is no secret that online poker sites use an enormous amount of security and encryption to protect their software from poker bots, colluders, and cheaters. However, one secret they can not protect is the deterministic algorithms they use in their software that decides the outcome of hands. Furthermore, any person that knows the algorithms can easily and simply win more often in online poker.

Why are they using algorithms anyway?

Initially, online poker sites had no need for extra algorithms used to ‘level the field’ as the simple use of a random number generator (RNG) would appear to produce a fair shuffle and seemingly accurate game. However in 2001, after several programmers were able to expose the flaws of the RNG and the inability of the RNG to produce an adequate number of random decks, (thereby making it easy to predict the flop, turn, and river), the online poker sites had to make changes.

After several changes were made in the seed generation of the RNG and sophisticated measures taken to produce a wider variety of random deck sequences, the online poker sites faced a new problem – collusion and cheating by unscrupulous players. This problem was addressed with a new set of algorithms that would produce a fair game by preventing colluding using sequential deterministic algorithms.

What Causes All Those Constant Bad Beats?

The implementation of those sequential algorithms intended to stop colluders actually created a new problem, it removed the true statistics and probability of the game. In other words, if you are holding pocket aces and the flop is A 9 Q, you essentially have a greater than 91% chance of wining the hand in live play. When the board finishes out 10 J or flush cards and you lose to a flush or straight by your opponent that is called a bad beat.

Simply put, the true odds of you winning the hand are no longer part of the game, because of the sequential algorithms used. These algorithms replace the true odds and determine the outcome based on their own mathematical decisions. That is why many people will claim that online poker is rigged.

What Is The Secret?

The secret is understanding how the algorithms work, and using that knowledge to curtail your own constant bad beats. In other words, the program makes a deterministic decision on the winning hand without regard to the odds, your outs, statistics, or any other true measure of the game. Therefore, if you want to win online poker, you need to understand the algorithms and put it to use in your game.

Betfair Secret Strategies of the Gurus – In Play Trading

The great Betfair secret which many people fail to realise for some time is the potential for profits by trading. With a good strategy and a little experience I believe trading is the real revolution in betting.

Betfair and other betting exchanges offer many advantages over traditional bookmakers including –

1) Odds to ‘back’ are often considerably better than most bookmakers. This is particularly the case for the more ‘outsiders.’ For example, a horse with odds of 15-1 in a traditional bookmaker is likely to be offered at more like 18-1 or even 20-1 on an exchange. Over time this can make the difference between profit and loss!

2) The ability to ‘lay’ a selection. This in effect makes us the ‘bookie’ and we can bet that our selection or team will lose. This opens up a whole range of opportunities. Put another way let’s take a 10 horse race. If you lay one of the runners you have nine running for you instead of just one! I advise caution however and you need to follow a proven, profitable laying system to make money.

3) The range of bets available. Let’s take football or soccer betting as an example. Traditionally we could bet that a team would win, maybe that the match would end a draw or perhaps the final score. We now literally have hundreds of betting markets and we can combine these for profit as I do in my Alpha Football Trading system.

As far as Betfair trading is concerned the key feature offered in that of In Play betting. This means that we can literally make bets during the match depending on what we expect to happen. We can react to goals scored, injuries and other things happening and it becomes a live market to trade in rather than a case of place a bet and sit back and hope for the best!

In Play betting is available on a wide range of sports and events from horse racing to tennis, snooker to football. Betting bots are now available which can make incredibly fast transactions and have again enhanced the profit potential. A bot is only as good as the strategy or system it’s used for and this is the first step to successful trading.

The ultimate goal of the trader is to achieve a ‘Green Screen’ on Betfair. This means you have achieved a position that whatever the outcome you will make a profit. This is a fantastic thing to achieve but using a solid system like Alpha Football Trader it’s quite easy to achieve. How much you can make depends on the betting bank you have available and as your experience grows you will see profits rise.

Betfair In Play Trading – The Betfair Secret for Profits

What’s the secret for real long term profits on Betfair? My ten years experience and constant testing would say it’s using Betfair trading strategies.

An ever increasing number of events and markets on Betfair now have the ‘In Play’ option. To clarify what this means let’s take the example of a football match. In a traditional bet the market is frozen once the game kicks off and we have to wait for the final outcome to know if we’ve won or lost. In Play betting means we can literally do that. We can wait until the match has played for a while before deciding which way it might go. Or more excitingly, we can start with one bet and then make others to trade for a profit on Betfair as the match unfolds.

A similar strategy is possible on horse racing and many other sports and events but the fast nature of these mean some type of betting bet may be needed. You can of course use a betting bot for football but the nature of the game means manual trading is also possible.

One of the oldest and most common strategies is that of ‘lay the draw.’ As the name suggests, this involves laying the draw (betting that the match won’t end as a draw) before kick off. We then make Betfair trading bets as the game unfolds. Ideally one team will score a goal and the odds of the match ending as a draw shift. This gives us the chance to place another bet and lock in a profit.

The ultimate position to be in is often called ‘greening up’ and many experienced traders view this is the true Betfair secret. Anyone familiar with how the site works will know that green indicates a winning position. By combining bets it’s possible to ‘green up’ meaning that whatever happens and whichever team wins we still make a profit.

I have tested many strategies and have concluded that the football (or soccer) markets are the best place for profitable Betfair trading. The vast range of markets opens up many opportunities. For example, we can back the next team to score a goal, the final score, even the score at half-time. All of these create options.

When I teach people trading I encourage a ‘paper’ approach at first. Watching the impact of changes during play is key in making long term profits. An understanding of how odds shift is a key skill.